By estimating a statistical model for male and female marathon world record progressions a study found that 1:58.05 is likely the fastest time that any living human being will be able to run this distance.

Published today in Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, the American College of Sports Medicine’s flagship journal, results show that the chance of a female athlete ever breaking the two-hour mark is less than 1 in 100, with the fastest all-time female marathon time estimated to be 2:05.31.

The study by Monash Business School is the first to address all three related aspects of world record marathon performance in one modelling framework – the sub-two hour limit, the limits of human physiological running capacity and gender equivalence.

It also highlights the potential barriers elite female athletes face in marathon running resulting in a something of a “world record drought”, with Paula Radcliffe’s 2:15.25 mark, set in 2003, still standing. A ‘sub-130 minute’ project (2:10.00), advocated in this study, would empower female long-distance athletes.

The marathon has an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26.219 miles) and was one of the original Olympic events in 1896. More than 800 marathons are held across the world each year, with tens of thousands of participants taking part in this physically gruelling event.

As part of the study, Dr Angus, Associate Professor of Economics at Monash Business School and ultramarathon runner, applied a robust non-linear economic model to all official IAAF world record marathon performances of men and women since 1950 in order to calculate record-breaking prediction intervals.

From there, Dr Angus was able to reconceptualise the ‘sub-two hour question’ as one of odds – for example, when will a given time be run with 1 in 10, or 10% likelihood.

Using these figures, Dr Angus was then able to determine the limits of human performance for the male and female marathon; the performance gap between the current male and female world record to the limiting times; and the equivalent of the ‘sub-two hour’ threshold for women and when this will be achieved.

The economic model is, on average, accurate to within 1% for men – or around 70 seconds – across a 66-year period which saw a 19 minute reduction in the world record time. For women, accuracy is within 3% – or roughly 200 seconds – across the same period where the world record dropped by one hour and 22 minutes.

A statistical findings for the sub-two hour male marathon are noted as:

OddsChanceWhen
1 in 425%March 2054
1 in 1010%May 2032
1 in 205%June 2024
1 in 502%April 2017
1 in 1001%January 2013
1 in 2000.5%June 2009

The current male world record holder, Eliud Kipchoge from Kenya, is just a fraction outside the sub-two-hour mark with a time of 2:01.39 – a record he set at the Berlin Marathon in 2018. By inspecting the prediction lines on the economic model, there was only a 2% chance that the sub-two-hour record would be broken at that point in time.

Using the same economic model and 10% likelihood approach, Dr Angus calculated that the likely human performance limit for male and female marathon times is 1:58.05 (performance gap to current world record of 2.9%) and 2:05.31 (performance gap of 8.6%) respectively.

Core training plays an important role in the endurance runner’s overall training programme. It improves running form and overall athletic performance and reduces the risk of injury.
The core is much more than just the abs. It includes all the muscles that stabilize and support the pelvis, spine, and trunk.
Core training should generally take place three times per week. Whether you run before or after work, schedule your core training at the opposite side of the day or during lunchtime, so that it won’t detract from your running.
Follow the sequence of exercises, do it twice. Make sure you fully recover between the two sets, rest 15 – 20 secs between exercises. Start with the following repetitions but increase it as you progress:

Abdominal crunch

20 repetitions

Leg pushaway

20 repetitions

Lying bridge

6 repetitions of 5 seconds each – squeeze the glutes when bringing the hips up

Swan
12 repetitions

Back extension
12 repetitions

Plank

4 repetitions of 14 seconds each

Side plank

3 repetitions of 10 seconds each

Standing knee hold

20 seconds on each leg

University of Montana Assistant Professor Richard Willy is the lead author on a paper that offers new guidelines for treating patellofemoral pain, often known as “runner’s knee.”

Patellofemoral pain (PFP) affects one in four of the general population every year, with women reporting PFP twice as often as men. The pain presents at the front of the knee, under and around the kneecap. Willy’s paper finds that exercise therapy – namely hip and knee strengthening treatments prescribed by a physical therapist – is the best recovery approach for individuals with PFP.

Willy is an assistant professor in UM’s School of Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation Sciences.

The recommendations were published Sept. 1 as a Clinical Practice Guideline in the Journal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy, the official scientific journal of the Academy of Orthopaedic Physical Therapy. The Clinical Practice Guideline aims to improve the quality and standardization of care provided to patients with knee pain while also providing reimbursement guidelines for insurance companies. Key takeaways from the Clinical Practice Guideline include:

  • An exercise program that gradually increases activities such as running, exercise classes, sports or walking, is the best way to prevent PFP.
  • An important way to reduce the risk of PFP is maximizing leg strength, particularly the thigh muscles.
  • Pain does not always mean there is damage to the knee.

Bringing the science of high intensity interval training (HIIT) into everyday life could be the key to helping unfit, overweight people get more of the exercise they need to improve their health, according to an international research team.

From washing the car to climbing stairs or carrying groceries, each of these activities is an opportunity for short sharp bursts of ‘High Intensity Incidental Physical Activity’, HIIPA for short.

In an editorial, published today in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, Emmanuel Stamatakis and colleagues argue that when considering differences in physical capabilities by age, sex and weight, many daily tasks can be classified as ‘high intensity’ physical activity. That is, the kind of activity that gets you out of breath enough to boost your fitness.

They say incorporating these kinds of activities into routines a few times a day will see significant health benefits for the majority of adults.

For the typical middle-aged woman, 60 percent of whom are overweight and/or unfit activities like running and playing with children at children’s pace, walking uphill or riding home from work all expend well over six times as much energy per minute than when at rest, which is the standard measure for high intensity activity.

The authors suggest over the course of the day these activities could be used in the same way that the popular high intensity interval training (HIIT) works by repeating short sessions of high intensity exercise with rests in between.

There is a lot of research telling us that any type of HIIT, irrespective of the duration and number of repetitions is one of the most effective ways to rapidly improve fitness and cardiovascular health and HIIPA works on the same idea.

The authors propose that significant health benefits could be gained by doing three to five brief HIIPA sessions totalling as little as five to 10 minutes a day, most days of the week.

We know from several large studies of middle aged and older adults that doing vigorous exercise has great long-term health benefits, but many people find it very difficult to start and stick to an exercise program.

The beauty of HIIPA and the idea of using activities we are already doing as part of everyday life is that it is much more realistic and achievable for most people.

Other practical advantages are nil costs, no need for equipment and no concerns about a lack of skill or fitness.

It’s just about making good decisions like parking the car at the edge of the carpark and carrying shopping for 50 or 100 metres.”

The editorial, co-authored by academics from the University of Sydney, Loughborough University, University College London, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, and the National Research Centre for the Working Environment (Denmark), was prompted by recent changes to the 2018 US Physical Activity Guidelines, the most comprehensive review of physical activity and health.

Your genes can determine how your heart rate and blood pressure respond to exercise – and may act as an early warning of future problems with your heart or blood vessels – according to new research published in The Journal of Physiology.

When people exercise, their heart rate and blood pressure increase. However, the magnitude of this increase is different for different people. Previous research has shown that abnormally large increases in blood pressure during exercise makes it more likely that people will suffer from future high blood pressure. Therefore understanding why people react differently to exercise is important as this can help to identify risk factors and enable early monitoring or treatment of individuals at risk.

Until now it has not been known why the response to exercise varies between different people. This new research has found that genetic differences in receptors found in skeletal muscles can contribute to this different response. Receptors are groups of specialised cells that detect changes in the environment and cause some kind of response. The scientists identified that the presence of two common genetic mutations in receptors found in skeletal muscle led to higher blood pressure during exercise compared to people who did not have them, particularly in men.

The research conducted by the University of Guelph (Canada), involved measuring heart rate and blood pressure of 200 healthy young men and women before and during exercise, plus analysing their DNA for genetic risk factors.

With many recreational runners ramping up their training in hopes of getting a personal best, a new measure of stress in the body demonstrates that more isn’t better when it comes to endurance sport training.

A University of Guelph study is the first to show that overload training may alter firing in the body’s sympathetic nerve fibres, which could hinder performance.

The study revealed that muscle sympathetic nerve activity, which constricts the muscle’s blood vessels and indicates stress in the body, increased in over-trained athletes.

Athletes who follow a consistent training regime don’t have the same overload stress and demonstrate improvements in their overall fitness and other markers of cardiovascular health.

Published in the journal Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, this is the first study to investigate the impact of overload training on muscle sympathetic nerve activity.

Previous studies have measured indirect physiological factors, such as heart rate variability, but examining muscle nerve fibre activity provides a direct measure of the nervous system’s response.

The researchers discovered sympathetic nerve activity increased in the overtrained athletes after the three-week period of overload training. Generally, sympathetic nerve activity stays pretty consistent day to day.

Recreational athletes who follow a regular balanced training programme showed no jump in nerve activity. Instead, they demonstrated improved cardiac reflex sensitivity and heart rate variability – signs of improved physical health.

Athletes who do overload training do not experience this same level of improved health. They don’t get worse, but they don’t get any better either, and their sympathetic nerve activity went up. It appears the overtraining negate some of the beneficial effects of regular training.

If you’re up there in age and feel like you can coast as a couch potato, you may want to reconsider. A new study suggests, for the first time in women over age 70, that working up a sweat can reduce the influence one’s genes have on obesity.

The message from the study is that your genetic risk for obesity is not wholly deterministic. The choices we make in our life play a large role in our health.

The study also revealed that genetic associations on BMI were strongest in sedentary postmenopausal women and weakest in women who reported high levels of recreational physical activity.

The study is significant in that, up to this point, little had been known about the effect of obesity genes later in life, particularly whether genetic predisposition can be mitigated by healthy behaviors such as physical activity, the researchers note.

It’s also one of a growing number of studies highlighting the benefits of being physically active, especially as it pertains to healthy aging.

The study was published last month in the journal Menopause.

By analyzing reported physical activity levels over time in more than 11 000 American adults, Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers conclude that increasing physical activity to recommended levels over as few as six years in middle age is associated with a significantly decreased risk of heart failure, a condition that affects an estimated 5 million to 6 million Americans.

The same analysis found that as little as six years without physical activity in middle age was linked to an increased risk of the disorder.

Unlike a heart attack, in which heart muscle dies, heart failure is marked by a long-term, chronic inability of the heart to pump enough blood, or pump it hard enough, to bring needed oxygen to the body. The leading cause of hospitalizations in those over 65, the disorder’s risk factors include high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, smoking and family history.